America's recent election has reignited global discussions on the direction of climate policy, particularly in the context of decarbonisation. The United States (U.S.), as a key player in international climate negotiations, wields significant influence through its economic power, diplomatic leverage, and historical role in shaping climate agreements. How might the outcome of the recent U.S. election influence global efforts to reduce carbon emissions?
Under President Biden’s administration, the U.S. has pursued ambitious climate goals through transformative legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which allocated $369 billion to clean energy initiatives. These investments have driven renewable energy growth and accelerated electric vehicle adoption, reinforcing America’s leadership in global climate diplomacy. Biden’s recommitment to the Paris Agreement and a pledge to cut emissions by 50–52% by 2030 further underscore the U.S.’s central role in international decarbonisation efforts. However, the future of these commitments remains uncertain, as the election outcome could reverse progress and dampen global momentum.
Trump’s scepticism toward climate change heavily influenced his administration’s policies, leaving a significant mark on both domestic and international efforts to combat global warming. This stance was most prominently displayed through his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2017, a move that signalled a retreat from global climate leadership.
Domestically, this climate scepticism translated into policy decisions that favoured fossil fuels. Between 2017 and 2020, federal policy shifts prioritised fossil fuels over renewables, marked by the rollback of the Obama-era Clean Power Plan and its replacement with the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. While the Clean Power Plan sought to cut emissions and expand the market for renewables, the ACE rule has been criticised for its limited impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and its potential to increase coal-fired electricity generation. These actions arguably shifts the focus away from decarbonisation efforts, demonstrating the administration’s prioritisation of traditional energy sectors over sustainability.
While concerns over a potential regression in American climate policy are valid, the global landscape in 2024 differs significantly from the past. Over the last few years, substantial progress has been made in strengthening climate resilience and policy frameworks worldwide.
A notable example is the European Union’s introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a policy designed to tax carbon-intensive imports. CBAM encourages decarbonisation beyond Europe’s borders by incentivising low-carbon production practices globally. This kind of regulatory leadership creates a domino effect, compelling other economies to accelerate their green transitions regardless of U.S. policies.
Furthermore, America’s decentralised approach to climate policies provides a buffer against federal rollbacks. State and city governments, as well as the private sector, have been crucial in maintaining progress through renewable energy investments, emissions reductions, and green innovation. These decentralised efforts ensure that even without federal leadership, the U.S. can contribute meaningfully to global decarbonisation.
This election may also influence global economic dynamics. Should the U.S. federal government pivot away from supporting green technology, American markets could face challenges in keeping up with global competition. Other economies, particularly in Europe and Asia, are increasingly investing in green tech, positioning themselves as leaders in the transition to a low-carbon future.
While the election raises questions about the trajectory of U.S. climate policy, the global decarbonisation movement appears more resilient this time. The world has learnt from past disruptions, with stronger frameworks like CBAM ensuring steady progress. Regardless of U.S. federal policies, global momentum toward decarbonisation is likely to continue, driven by robust international cooperation and the economic imperative of green innovation.
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